According to a statement released on January 13, the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) indicates that employment in the U.S. is expected to increase in the upcoming months. In December 2024, the ETI rose slightly to 109.70, its highest level since June 2024 and a reflection of the consistent increase in employment.
According to recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 256,000 new jobs were created in December 2024, which was higher than expected and higher than November’s numbers. Growth was focused on industries such as retail, leisure and hospitality, and health care. According to economist Mitchell Barnes, the ETI’s three months in a row of advances show that the labor market is more balanced and that concerns about employment are easing.
Initial jobless claims in early January reached their lowest point since April, and temporary-help sector employment has grown for two months. Barnes also highlighted that strong consumer spending, fueled by high employment and wage growth, is expected to sustain labor demand.
The robust labor market has influenced Federal Reserve rate expectations, with ING Bank forecasting a likely pause in rate cuts, citing the stability of employment data.
Despite this optimism, a Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. report revealed 761,358 job cuts in 2024, a 5.5% increase from 2023, driven by challenges in sectors like tech and health care. Hiring intentions also dipped slightly, with companies planning to add 769,953 workers, the lowest since 2015.
Looking ahead to 2025, a ManpowerGroup survey of 6,000 U.S. employers indicated a “moderate hiring climate” in Q1, with 46% planning to hire and 38% maintaining steady workforce levels. The information technology sector showed the most positive employment outlook, followed by financials, real estate, and health care.
